1. Export Volume Trend: From Expansion to Stabilization
China’s tomato paste export volume increased significantly from 2021 to 2023.
In 2021, China’s large-pack tomato paste exports reached 511,388 tons under the customs data scope used in this analysis. In 2022, export volume increased to 663,863 tons. By 2023, export volume reached 728,147 tons, the highest annual level in this data period.
This means that compared with 2021, China exported more than 40% additional tomato paste volume in 2023. The increase reflected active overseas shipments, strong market demand during the high-price cycle and the expansion of processing capacity.
However, after the 2023 peak, export volume declined in 2024 to 669,007 tons. In 2025, export volume stayed almost unchanged at 669,668 tons.
Key point: Although prices fell sharply in 2025, shipment volume did not collapse. China’s tomato paste exports remained at a relatively high level compared with 2021 and 2022.
For global buyers, this suggests that China’s supply base remained strong even after the high-price cycle ended.
The market correction after 2023 was therefore mainly reflected in price rather than volume. This pattern is better described as stable shipment volume under much lower prices, rather than a simple decline in export demand.
2. Average Export Price Trend: From High Price to Price Reset
The average export price changed even more dramatically than export volume.
In 2021, the average export price was US$783/ton. In 2022, it increased to US$945/ton. In 2023, the average export price reached US$1,185/ton, the highest annual level in this review period.
The price increase from 2021 to 2023 was significant. During this stage, Chinese tomato paste suppliers had stronger pricing power, and international buyers faced higher procurement costs.
The high-price level continued into early 2024. However, the correction became increasingly clear during 2024. For the full year, the average export price declined to US$1,001/ton.
In 2025, the correction became much deeper. The annual average export price dropped to US$675/ton, down sharply from 2024 and far below the 2023 peak.
Key point: China’s export volume in 2025 was almost the same as in 2024, but total export value fell significantly because the average export price was much lower.
For buyers, this means that the market environment in 2025 was very different from the high-price period of 2023 and early 2024. The market moved from a seller-friendly cycle to a more buyer-friendly cycle.
3. Why Prices Corrected: High Prices Led to Supply Expansion
The 2024–2025 price correction was not only a demand-side issue. It was largely the result of supply expansion after the high-price cycle in 2022–2023.
Industry estimates from WPTC suggest that global fresh tomato processing volume for the 2024 season reached around 45.8 million tons, up from both 2023 and 2022 levels. China’s tomato processing volume also expanded sharply in the 2024 season, reaching around 11.0 million tons. This represented a significant increase compared with the previous two seasons.
This rapid supply expansion helps explain why the price correction became so sharp. When prices stay high for several seasons, production incentives increase. More growers and processors are willing to expand planting and processing volume. But when additional supply enters the market faster than demand can absorb it, inventory pressure builds up and prices can fall quickly.
For tomato paste, this effect can be even more visible because production is seasonal while sales and inventory digestion take longer. Once a large processing season creates high inventory, the pressure may continue into the following year.
Therefore, the decline in average export price after 2023 should not be understood simply as weaker demand. It was more closely related to the supply response after a high-price period.
4. 2025 Was a Price Reset Year, Not a Volume Collapse
When export volume and average price are viewed together, 2025 becomes the key turning point.
In 2023, China exported 728,147 tons of tomato paste at an average export price of US$1,185/ton. This combination of high shipment volume and high price created the highest export value in the data period, reaching US$862.8 million.
In 2024, both volume and price declined. Export volume fell to 669,007 tons, and the average export price fell to US$1,001/ton. Export value therefore declined to US$669.8 million.
In 2025, export volume remained stable at 669,668 tons, but the average export price dropped to US$675/ton. As a result, export value fell further to US$451.7 million.
Key point: 2025 was more accurately a price reset year. China continued to export a large amount of tomato paste, but suppliers had to accept a much lower average export price.
The 2025 market can be summarized as stable volume, falling price and narrower margins. Shipment volume remained broadly stable, but the lower price level reduced total export value and put pressure on producers’ profitability.
This view is highly consistent with the customs data. China’s export base did not disappear. Instead, the industry entered a lower-price environment, and the pressure was mainly reflected in price, margins and export value.
5. Supply Cut and Rebalancing: Why Prices Stopped Falling Rapidly
After the oversupply phase in 2024, the supply side started to adjust.
Industry estimates suggest that China’s processing tomato planting area in 2025 fell sharply from the previous year. Processing tomato output also declined significantly, helping reduce new supply pressure and pushing the market toward supply-demand rebalancing.
This supply-side correction helps explain why prices showed signs of stabilization after the sharp decline. When planted area and processing volume are reduced, new supply pressure decreases. If inventory digestion continues, the market can gradually move from rapid price decline to low-level stabilization.
However, stabilization does not mean a strong price rebound. The key issue is still inventory. Even after production cuts, old inventory needs time to be absorbed. If processors expand production again too quickly, the market may face renewed inventory pressure.
For buyers, this means that the low-price environment should be understood carefully. Low prices may create sourcing opportunities, but extremely low prices may not be sustainable if supplier margins are under pressure and new supply is reduced.
6. Early 2026: Low-Level Stabilization, Not a Strong Reversal Yet
The available 2026 customs data covers January to March. During the first quarter of 2026, China exported 161,285 tons of bulk tomato paste under the customs data scope used in this analysis, with an average export unit value of US$673/ton.
Compared with the 2025 annual average price of US$675/ton, the first-quarter 2026 price level was almost unchanged. This suggests that after the sharp decline in 2025, the average export price may have entered a relatively low and stable range.
But it is still too early to conclude that a strong upward cycle has started. WPTC industry estimates indicate that global tomato processing volume in 2026 may remain below the oversupply levels of 2023–2024. At the same time, global tomato product inventories are still high, and inventory digestion will take time.
China’s tomato processing volume is also expected to recover from the reduced 2025 level, but remain well below the 2024 peak. This means the market may be improving from the worst oversupply stage, but the pace of price recovery still depends on inventory digestion, production discipline and demand recovery.
Key point: The more reasonable interpretation is not “price rebound,” but “low-level stabilization.” The market may no longer be in the same rapid price-decline stage as 2024–2025, but a strong upward price cycle is not guaranteed.
7. What This Means for Global Tomato Paste Buyers
For global buyers, the 2021–2026 export data provides several useful signals.
- China remains a major and stable supplier. Even after the high-price cycle ended, export volume stayed at a relatively high level in 2024 and 2025. This means that supply availability remained strong.
- Price cycles matter. Buyers who purchased during the high-price period of 2023 or early 2024 may now face a very different pricing environment. The lower price level in 2025 and early 2026 may create opportunities for importers, distributors and food manufacturers to review their sourcing plans.
- Buyers should not only focus on the current price. Tomato paste is influenced by crop season, planted area, processing volume, inventory, freight cost and supplier financial pressure. A low customs average price may indicate buyer-friendly conditions, but it may also reflect margin pressure on producers.
- Product specification still matters. Tomato paste buyers need to compare Brix level, processing type, color value, Bostwick, packaging method, delivery schedule and supplier reliability. A lower average customs price does not mean that every product specification has the same price movement.
For bulk tomato paste buyers, especially those purchasing 220L drums, aseptic bags or other large-size packaging, understanding the export cycle can help improve purchasing timing. For canned tomato paste buyers, the trend can also provide a useful reference for broader supply conditions in China’s tomato processing industry.
Conclusion
From 2021 to early 2026, China’s tomato paste exports went through a complete market cycle.
2021 was a relatively stable base year. 2022–2023 was a high-price expansion phase, with both export volume and average export price rising strongly. 2024 marked the beginning of an oversupply-driven price correction, as processing volume increased significantly and inventory pressure built up. 2025 became a price reset year: export volume remained stable, but the average export price dropped sharply.
By early 2026, the market appeared to be entering a low-level stabilization phase. Supply cuts in 2025 helped reduce new supply pressure, but high inventory and cautious buying behavior mean that a strong price rebound is still uncertain.
For global buyers, the main lesson is that China’s tomato paste market should be viewed with a cycle perspective. Instead of focusing only on short-term price changes, buyers should pay attention to export volume, average customs price, crop season, planted area, processing volume, inventory pressure and supplier capability.
A data-based understanding of China’s tomato paste export cycle can help buyers make better sourcing decisions and build more stable long-term supply relationships.
About RTM Tomato
At RTM Tomato, we follow China’s tomato paste export data and processing-season changes closely, because these market-cycle signals are important for importers, distributors and food manufacturers when planning long-term sourcing. For buyers of bulk tomato paste, aseptic drums or canned tomato paste products, combining data analysis with supplier stability and product specification review can support more reliable purchasing decisions.
Data Note
This article is based on China Customs bulk tomato paste export data from January 2021 to March 2026, focusing on large-pack tomato paste exports. Export volume refers to the first quantity in kilograms, converted into metric tons. Export value refers to customs export value in US dollars. Average export unit value is calculated as export value divided by export volume.
The average export unit value shown in this article is for trend analysis only and should not be interpreted as RTM Tomato’s actual quotation, nor as the transaction price of any specific supplier or product. Actual prices may vary depending on Brix level, processing type, packaging format, contract terms, destination market, shipment schedule, product specification and supplier-specific conditions.
Industry supply-side references include WPTC estimates on global and China processing tomato volume, planted area and supply-demand rebalancing. These figures are used to explain market-cycle direction and should be understood as industry estimates rather than transaction-level pricing data.