China Tomato Paste Export Data Update: June & Q2 2026

Q2 2026 Compared with Q1 2026

Second-quarter export volume totaled 168,737 tons, up 4.6% from Q1. Export value increased by a smaller 2.5% to US$111.28 million because the quarter's weighted average unit value declined from US$673/ton in Q1 to US$660/ton in Q2.

The quarterly average is important because it prevents June's sharp price rebound from dominating the interpretation. April and May accounted for roughly 70% of Q2 volume, both at lower unit values than March or June. As a result, Q2 still recorded a 2.0% quarter-on-quarter decline in weighted unit value even though June finished at US$697/ton.

Year-on-Year Comparison: June, Q2 and H1

June 2026 volume was 7.4% below June 2025, but its average export unit value was 4.4% higher. The combination produced a smaller 3.2% decline in export value than in physical volume, showing that the higher unit value partly offset the shipment shortfall.

The broader quarterly and half-year comparisons are more stable. Q2 volume was 5.7% below the same quarter of 2025, while the weighted unit value was almost unchanged at approximately US$660/ton. For H1, volume was 6.3% lower year on year, while the cumulative average unit value was 0.6% higher.

This pattern shows that the year-on-year gap in the first half came mainly from lower shipment quantity, not from a further broad decline in the period-average unit value.

January-June 2026 Monthly Data

What Changed in June 2026?

June export volume fell by 9,708 tons from May to 50,109 tons, a month-on-month decline of 16.2%. This was the lowest monthly volume in the first half and ended the three-month expansion recorded from March through May.

Average export unit value moved in the opposite direction, rising by US$56/ton from May to US$697/ton. That was the highest monthly level of H1 and 4.4% above June 2025. Export value still declined 8.9% month on month because the contraction in shipment quantity was larger than the rise in unit value.

The June result is a late-season volume-price divergence. Based on RTM's market observation, Crop 2025 inventory clearance has progressed well: with less remaining old-crop stock and less urgency to clear it at lower values, the average unit value strengthened even as shipment volume fell. Some buyers also delayed purchases to compare Crop 2026 lots entering commercial channels around August. Because this is a customs-derived average, US$697/ton remains a market trend indicator rather than a spot price or supplier quotation.

Crop 2025 Inventory Explains the June Reversal

June exports were supplied from Crop 2025 inventory. The World Processing Tomato Council's 7 June 2026 update reported that transplanting in China had only been completed by June 1, so Crop 2026 raw tomatoes had not entered the processing cycle during the period covered by the June export data. The Tomato News China industry profile places the normal processing start between 20 July and early August; Crop 2026 paste enters commercial export channels around August.

Based on RTM's market observation, Crop 2025 inventory clearance has been orderly. Competitive shipments earlier in Q2 reduced the old-crop surplus. By June, less saleable inventory remained and sellers had less need to move stock at the lower unit values recorded in April and May. At the same time, part of the buyer market paused new commitments while waiting for Crop 2026. This combination explains the lower June volume and the temporary rebound in average export unit value.

The new-crop outlook belongs to the next phase, not the June price explanation. WPTC's June forecast placed China's 2026 processing volume at 5.85 million tons of fresh tomatoes, 19% above the sharply reduced 2025 crop, with planted area up 15%. When Crop 2026 shipments begin around August, supply availability will broaden. June's US$697/ton average is therefore end-of-old-crop pricing rather than the price baseline for the 2026 crop.

How to Read the First-Half Trend

China exported 330,022 tons of bulk tomato paste in January-June 2026, with a total export value of US$219.87 million and a weighted average export unit value of US$666/ton.

First-half volume was 6.3% below the same period of 2025, while the weighted unit value was 0.6% higher. The result does not show a broad first-half price surge; it shows a relatively stable period average alongside lower physical shipments and significant month-to-month volatility.

July remains primarily late-stage Crop 2025 trade. From around August, the first Crop 2026 shipments begin entering the export market. July is the final old-crop inventory phase; August and September data will begin to show the new crop's supply, quality and shipment pace.

Buyer Takeaway

For importers, distributors and food manufacturers, the June and Q2 figures provide three practical signals:

1. Treat US$697/ton as a late-old-crop signal. The June rebound reflects smooth Crop 2025 inventory clearance and lower remaining old-crop supply. It is not a quotation for Crop 2026.
2. Plan around August new-crop arrivals. Buyers waiting for Crop 2026 should confirm the first production and shipment dates, crop year, available quantity and delivery window. Compare remaining Crop 2025 lots and new-season offers separately.
3. Audit the variables behind each offer. Compare Brix level, color value, processing type, packaging format, destination market, shipment timing, contract terms and supplier reliability. These variables can materially affect the gap between a customs average and an actual delivered offer.

The June divergence strengthens the case for specification-level price checks. Current shipments remain Crop 2025 material, while Crop 2026 commercial shipments begin around August. Buyers should keep the two crop cycles separate when comparing quality, availability, delivery schedules and commercial terms.