China Tomato Paste Export Destinations Update: June & Q2 2026

What Changed in June?

June export volume fell 16.2% from May and export value fell 8.9%, but the decline was not uniform across destinations. The number of customs-recorded markets moved from 75 in May to 65 in June. At the same time, the top five share eased from 48.2% to 45.1%, and the top ten share moved from 65.6% to 62.6%.

This combination matters: June reached fewer destination countries, yet the head of the ranking was slightly less concentrated than in May. Italy's large May shipment wave unwound, while more June value was distributed across the Philippines, Thailand, Sudan, Nigeria, Lebanon and several other markets.

June Was a Rotation, Not a Uniform Pullback

The Philippines added US$1.97 million from May and increased its share by 6.5 percentage points. Its June export volume reached 7,508 tons, making it the largest June destination by both value and volume in this dataset.

Sudan added US$0.92 million after no recorded shipment in May, while Thailand added US$0.62 million. These gains partly offset Italy, where June export value was US$1.39 million, down US$3.62 million from May. The sharp Italy reversal is a reminder that a monthly destination spike can reflect shipment timing rather than a straight-line demand trend.

Q2 Became More Concentrated Without Losing Market Reach

Q2 exports reached 168,737 tons and US$111.28 million, up 4.6% and 2.5% from Q1 respectively. Both quarters recorded exports to 98 destination markets, so the change was not a simple narrowing in geographic reach.

The weight inside that map changed materially. The top five destinations represented 44.0% of Q2 export value, compared with 33.1% in Q1. The top ten share rose from 51.7% to 60.0%. In other words, the number of active markets stayed broad, but a larger portion of quarterly value moved through the leading countries.

Three Markets Generated Most of the Gross Q2 Increase

Italy, the Philippines and Russia together added US$13.97 million of export value from Q1 to Q2, equal to 53.0% of all positive country-level changes. That was more than five times the net quarter-on-quarter increase of US$2.70 million, because declines in Ghana, South Africa, Cameroon, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Indonesia and other destinations offset much of the gross gain.

This is the clearest Q2 signal: total exports improved modestly, but the improvement was not broad-based across destination markets. Russia, Italy, the Philippines and Saudi Arabia alone accounted for 39.8% of Q2 export value.

Europe and Eurasia Gained Weight; Africa Pulled Back

Europe increased from 14.0% of Q1 export value to 20.1% in Q2, led mainly by Italy and Poland. Eurasia/CIS moved from 15.4% to 18.7%, with Russia as the anchor market.

Africa moved from 22.3% to 15.7%, while the Middle East and Gulf eased from 17.0% to 14.5%. Asia excluding the Middle East was almost unchanged at 24.8% in Q1 and 24.8% in Q2: the Philippines gained strongly, but lower weight in Indonesia and South Korea offset much of that increase.

For longer regional baselines, see RTM's reviews of bulk tomato paste exports to Africa and bulk tomato paste exports to the Middle East.

How to Read the Q2 Shift

Q2 preceded the normal Crop 2026 processing window. The WPTC crop update of 7 June 2026 reported that transplanting in China had been completed by June 1, while the Tomato News China industry profile places the normal processing start between July 20 and early August. RTM therefore reads Q2 primarily as old-crop, mainly Crop 2025 inventory flows; the customs data itself does not identify crop year or the reasons behind individual country movements.

The country changes should be read as realized shipment flows, not as proof of final consumption growth or a supply shortage in any one destination. Italy's Q2 rise, for example, was concentrated in April and May and should not be projected mechanically into Q3. The Philippines showed a more persistent monthly acceleration inside Q2, but later Q3 data, especially August and September, are still needed to test whether that strength continues into the crop transition.

For the supply-side context behind the export cycle, see why Xinjiang is central to China tomato paste exports.

Buyer Takeaway

1. Watch persistence, not only rank. The Philippines, Russia and Saudi Arabia carried meaningful June weight, while Italy's Q2 increase was concentrated earlier in the quarter. Later Q3 data, especially August-September, will begin to show which shipment patterns persist into the new-crop phase.
2. Confirm allocation and loading windows early. When four destinations account for nearly 40% of recorded Q2 export value, buyers may want to confirm production allocation, packaging availability, container timing and shipment schedules rather than relying only on the monthly total.
3. Separate market averages from specifications. Compare Brix level, color value, processing type, packaging format, destination requirements, crop year, shipment timing, contract terms and supplier reliability before using country-level average unit values in a sourcing decision.

China's H1 data covered 111 destination markets, so the recorded destination reach remained broad even as Q2 value became more concentrated. RTM can support buyers with specification review, packaging choices, crop-year availability and shipment planning.